Prediction of death in patients with primary intracerebral hemorrhage: a prospective study of a defined population

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Object. Predictors of early (30-day) and long-term (1-year) mortality rates after primary intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) were studied in a large population in southern Sweden.

Methods. All cases of primary ICH, verified using computerized tomography (CT) scanning or autopsy study, were prospectively registered at the 12 hospitals covering a defined population of 1.14 million during the calendar year 1996. Mortality was analyzed in relation to CT findings (hematoma location and volume and ventricular extension) and clinical parameters (patient age and sex, level of consciousness on admission, and history of preictal risk factors) by using univariate and multivariate statistical methods.

Three hundred forty-one cases of primary ICH were detected. The overall mortality rate was 36% at the 30-day and 47% at the 1-year follow up. Multivariate analysis revealed that initial level of consciousness, hematoma volume, and a history of heart disease were independent predictors of death at 30 days postictus. One year after bleeding, independent predictors of mortality were the initial level of consciousness, patient age, and hematoma location.

Conclusions. Primary ICH remains a stroke subtype associated with a high mortality rate and for which the level of consciousness on admission is the strongest predictor of fatal outcome both at 30 days and during the 1st year after bleeding. A preictal history of heart disease increased the 30-day mortality rate.

Article Information

Address reprint requests to: Ola G. Nilsson, M.D., Ph.D., Department of Neurosurgery, Lund University Hospital, S-221 85 Lund, Sweden. email: ola.nilsson@neurokir.lu.se.

© AANS, except where prohibited by US copyright law.

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    One-year survival probability curves for male and female patients calculated using Kaplan—Meier analysis.

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