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Caglar Yilgor, Nuray Sogunmez, Yasemin Yavuz, Kadir Abul, Louis Boissiére, Sleiman Haddad, Ibrahim Obeid, Frank Kleinstück, Francisco Javier Sánchez Pérez-Grueso, Emre Acaroğlu, Anne F. Mannion, Ferran Pellise, Ahmet Alanay and the European Spine Study Group

OBJECTIVE

The subtraction of lumbar lordosis (LL) from the pelvic incidence (PI) offers an estimate of the LL required for a given PI value. Relative LL (RLL) and the lordosis distribution index (LDI) are PI-based individualized measures. RLL quantifies the magnitude of lordosis relative to the ideal lordosis as defined by the magnitude of PI. LDI defines the magnitude of lower arc lordosis in proportion to total lordosis. The aim of this study was to compare RLL and PI − LL for their ability to predict postoperative complications and their correlations with health-related quality of life (HRQOL) scores.

METHODS

Inclusion criteria were ≥ 4 levels of fusion and ≥ 2 years of follow-up. Mechanical complications were proximal junctional kyphosis/proximal junctional failure, distal junctional kyphosis/distal junctional failure, rod breakage, and implant-related complications. Correlations between PI − LL, RLL, PI, and HRQOL were analyzed using the Pearson correlation coefficient. Mechanical complication rates in PI − LL, RLL, LDI, RLL, and LDI interpreted together, and RLL subgroups for each PI − LL category were compared using chi-square tests and the exact test. Predictive models for mechanical complications with RLL and PI − LL were analyzed using binomial logistic regressions.

RESULTS

Two hundred twenty-two patients (168 women, 54 men) were included. The mean age was 52.2 ± 19.3 years (range 18–84 years). The mean follow-up was 28.8 ± 8.2 months (range 24–62 months). There was a significant correlation between PI − LL and PI (r = 0.441, p < 0.001), threatening the use of PI − LL to quantify spinopelvic mismatch for different PI values. RLL was not correlated with PI (r = −0.093, p > 0.05); therefore, it was able to quantify divergence from ideal lordosis for all PI values. Compared with PI − LL, RLL had stronger correlations with HRQOL scores (p < 0.05). Discrimination performance was better for the model with RLL than for PI − LL. The agreement between RLL and PI − LL was high (κ = 0.943, p < 0.001), moderate (κ = 0.455, p < 0.001), and poor (κ = −0.154, p = 0.343), respectively, for large, average, and small PI sizes. When analyzed by RLL, each PI − LL category was further divided into distinct groups of patients who had different mechanical complication rates (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Using the formula of PI − LL may be insufficient to quantify normolordosis for the whole spectrum of PI values when applied as an absolute numeric value in conjunction with previously reported population-based average thresholds of 10° and 20°. Schwab PI − LL groups were found to constitute an inhomogeneous group of patients. RLL offers an individualized quantification of LL for all PI sizes. Compared with PI − LL, RLL showed a greater association with both mechanical complications and HRQOL. The use of RLL and LDI together, instead of PI − LL, for surgical planning may result in lower mechanical complication rates and better long-term HRQOL.

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Ferran Pellisé, Miquel Serra-Burriel, Justin S. Smith, Sleiman Haddad, Michael P. Kelly, Alba Vila-Casademunt, Francisco Javier Sánchez Pérez-Grueso, Shay Bess, Jeffrey L. Gum, Douglas C. Burton, Emre Acaroğlu, Frank Kleinstück, Virginie Lafage, Ibrahim Obeid, Frank Schwab, Christopher I. Shaffrey, Ahmet Alanay, Christopher Ames, the International Spine Study Group and the European Spine Study Group

OBJECTIVE

Adult spinal deformity (ASD) surgery has a high rate of major complications (MCs). Public information about adverse outcomes is currently limited to registry average estimates. The object of this study was to assess the incidence of adverse events after ASD surgery, and to develop and validate a prognostic tool for the time-to-event risk of MC, hospital readmission (RA), and unplanned reoperation (RO).

METHODS

Two models per outcome, created with a random survival forest algorithm, were trained in an 80% random split and tested in the remaining 20%. Two independent prospective multicenter ASD databases, originating from the European continent and the United States, were queried, merged, and analyzed. ASD patients surgically treated by 57 surgeons at 23 sites in 5 countries in the period from 2008 to 2016 were included in the analysis.

RESULTS

The final sample consisted of 1612 ASD patients: mean (standard deviation) age 56.7 (17.4) years, 76.6% women, 10.4 (4.3) fused vertebral levels, 55.1% of patients with pelvic fixation, 2047.9 observation-years. Kaplan-Meier estimates showed that 12.1% of patients had at least one MC at 10 days after surgery; 21.5%, at 90 days; and 36%, at 2 years. Discrimination, measured as the concordance statistic, was up to 71.7% (95% CI 68%–75%) in the development sample for the postoperative complications model. Surgical invasiveness, age, magnitude of deformity, and frailty were the strongest predictors of MCs. Individual cumulative risk estimates at 2 years ranged from 3.9% to 74.1% for MCs, from 3.17% to 44.2% for RAs, and from 2.67% to 51.9% for ROs.

CONCLUSIONS

The creation of accurate prognostic models for the occurrence and timing of MCs, RAs, and ROs following ASD surgery is possible. The presented variability in patient risk profiles alongside the discrimination and calibration of the models highlights the potential benefits of obtaining time-to-event risk estimates for patients and clinicians.