Search Results

You are looking at 1 - 8 of 8 items for

  • Author or Editor: Paul Kubilis x
Clear All Modify Search
Restricted access

William C. Newman, Paul S. Kubilis and Brian L. Hoh

OBJECTIVE

Comorbidities have a significant effect on patient outcomes. Accounting for this effect is especially important in retrospective reviews of large databases; overpowered studies are at risk for finding significant results because of inaccurate patient risk stratification. The authors previously created a neurovascular comorbidities index (NCI) for patients with an unruptured intracranial aneurysm and found that the model’s ability to predict patient outcomes was statistically significantly improved over that of the routinely used Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) and Elixhauser Comorbidity Index (ECI). In this study, the authors aimed to validate use of the NCI over that of the CCI and ECI for risk stratification of patients with other neurovascular diseases.

METHODS

The authors queried the National (Nationwide) Inpatient Sample database for the years 2002–2012 to compare the accuracy of the previously validated NCI with that of the CCI and ECI with respect to predicting outcomes for patients who had an arteriovenous malformation, a ruptured intracranial aneurysm, carotid artery stenosis, or dural arteriovenous fistula and who underwent surgical intervention.

RESULTS

For patients with an arteriovenous malformation, the NCI outperformed the CCI and ECI in predicting poor outcome, hospital length of stay (LOS), and total cost but was equivalent to the CCI in predicting death. For patients with a ruptured intracranial aneurysm, the NCI outperformed the ECI and CCI in predicting death, poor outcome, LOS, and total cost. For patients with carotid artery stenosis, the NCI outperformed the ECI and CCI in predicting LOS, but it was equivalent to the ECI in predicting death and total cost and inferior to the CCI in predicting poor outcome (p < 0.002 for all). An insufficient number of patients with dural arteriovenous fistula who underwent surgical intervention were available for analysis (n < 10), and they therefore were excluded from study. For 11 of 12 metrics, the NCI was the significantly more efficient model.

CONCLUSIONS

The NCI outperforms the CCI and ECI by providing more appropriate and efficient risk stratification of patients regarding death, outcome, LOS, and cost. Given this finding, the NCI should be used for retrospective reviews of patient outcomes instead of the CCI or ECI.

Restricted access

Thomas L. Ellis, William A. Friedman, Frank J. Bova, Paul S. Kubilis and John M. Buatti

Object. The aim of this study was to evaluate the causes of treatment failure in patients with arteriovenous malformations (AVMs) who underwent radiosurgery, which is increasingly used as a treatment method for selected, surgically high-risk AVMs. Unfortunately, radiosurgical treatment fails in a small but significant percentage of patients. In the time period covered in this study, 72 patients attained angiographically confirmed cures after radiosurgery and 36 were retreated after the initial radiosurgical treatment failed.

Methods. Using a computerized image fusion technique, the initial radiosurgical dosimetry plan was superimposed on the remaining AVM nidus at the time of retreatment. Twenty-six percent of the retreated cases were found to have AVM niduses outside the original treatment isodose line, which means that targeting error was a factor. The retreated group was also statistically compared with the cured group.

Conclusions. Multivariate analysis revealed that the following factors were statistically significant predictors of treatment failure: increasing AVM size, decreasing treatment dose, and increasing Spetzler—Martin grade.

Restricted access

Kelly D. Foote, William A. Friedman, John M. Buatti, Sanford L. Meeks, Frank J. Bova and Paul S. Kubilis

Object. The aim of this study was to identify factors associated with delayed cranial neuropathy following radiosurgery for vestibular schwannoma (VS or acoustic neuroma) and to determine how such factors may be manipulated to minimize the incidence of radiosurgical complications while maintaining high rates of tumor control.

Methods. From July 1988 to June 1998, 149 cases of VS were treated using linear accelerator radiosurgery at the University of Florida. In each of these cases, the patient's tumor and brainstem were contoured in 1-mm slices on the original radiosurgical targeting images. Resulting tumor and brainstem volumes were coupled with the original radiosurgery plans to generate dose—volume histograms. Various tumor dimensions were also measured to estimate the length of cranial nerve that would be irradiated. Patient follow-up data, including evidence of cranial neuropathy and radiographic tumor control, were obtained from a prospectively maintained, computerized database. The authors performed statistical analyses to compare the incidence of posttreatment cranial neuropathies or tumor growth between patient strata defined by risk factors of interest. One hundred thirty-nine of the 149 patients were included in the analysis of complications. The median duration of clinical follow up for this group was 36 months (range 18–94 months). The tumor control analysis included 133 patients. The median duration of radiological follow up in this group was 34 months (range 6–94 months).

The overall 2-year actuarial incidences of facial and trigeminal neuropathies were 11.8% and 9.5%, respectively. In 41 patients treated before 1994, the incidences of facial and trigeminal neuropathies were both 29%, but in the 108 patients treated since January 1994, these rates declined to 5% and 2%, respectively.

An evaluation of multiple risk factor models showed that maximum radiation dose to the brainstem, treatment era (pre-1994 compared with 1994 or later), and prior surgical resection were all simultaneously informative predictors of cranial neuropathy risk. The radiation dose prescribed to the tumor margin could be substituted for the maximum dose to the brainstem with a small loss in predictive strength. The pons—petrous tumor diameter was an additional statistically significant simultaneous predictor of trigeminal neuropathy risk, whereas the distance from the brainstem to the end of the tumor in the petrous bone was an additional marginally significant simultaneous predictor of facial neuropathy risk.

The overall radiological tumor control rate was 93% (59% tumors regressed, 34% remained stable, and 7.5% enlarged), and the 5-year actuarial tumor control rate was 87% (95% confidence interval [CI] 76–98%). Analysis revealed that a radiation dose cutpoint of 10 Gy compared with more than 10 Gy prescribed to the tumor margin yielded the greatest relative difference in tumor growth risk (relative risk 2.4, 95% CI 0.6–9.3), although this difference was not statistically significant (p = 0.207).

Conclusions. Five points must be noted. 1) Radiosurgery is a safe, effective treatment for small VSs. 2) Reduction in the radiation dose has played the most important role in reducing the complications associated with VS radiosurgery. 3) The dose to the brainstem is a more informative predictor of postradiosurgical cranial neuropathy than the length of the nerve that is irradiated. 4) Prior resection increases the risk of late cranial neuropathies after radiosurgery. 5) A prescription dose of 12.5 Gy to the tumor margin resulted in the best combination of maximum tumor control and minimum complications in this series.

Restricted access

Sasha Vaziri, Jacob Wilson, Joseph Abbatematteo, Paul Kubilis, Saptarshi Chakraborty, Khare Kshitij and Daniel J. Hoh

OBJECTIVE

The American College of Surgeons (ACS) National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) universal Surgical Risk Calculator is an online decision-support tool that uses patient characteristics to estimate the risk of adverse postoperative events. Further validation of this risk calculator in the neurosurgical population is needed; therefore, the object of this study was to assess the predictive performance of the ACS NSQIP Surgical Risk Calculator in neurosurgical patients treated at a tertiary care center.

METHODS

A single-center retrospective review of 1006 neurosurgical patients treated in the period from September 2011 through December 2014 was performed. Individual patient characteristics were entered into the NSQIP calculator. Predicted complications were compared with actual occurrences identified through chart review and administrative quality coding data. Statistical models were used to assess the predictive performance of risk scores. Traditionally, an ideal risk prediction model demonstrates good calibration and strong discrimination when comparing predicted and observed events.

RESULTS

The ACS NSQIP risk calculator demonstrated good calibration between predicted and observed risks of death (p = 0.102), surgical site infection (SSI; p = 0.099), and venous thromboembolism (VTE; p = 0.164) Alternatively, the risk calculator demonstrated a statistically significant lack of calibration between predicted and observed risk of pneumonia (p = 0.044), urinary tract infection (UTI; p < 0.001), return to the operating room (p < 0.001), and discharge to a rehabilitation or nursing facility (p < 0.001). The discriminative performance of the risk calculator was assessed using the c-statistic. Death (c-statistic 0.93), UTI (0.846), and pneumonia (0.862) demonstrated strong discriminative performance. Discharge to a rehabilitation facility or nursing home (c-statistic 0.794) and VTE (0.767) showed adequate discrimination. Return to the operating room (c-statistic 0.452) and SSI (0.556) demonstrated poor discriminative performance. The risk prediction model was both well calibrated and discriminative only for 30-day mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

This study illustrates the importance of validating universal risk calculators in specialty-specific surgical populations. The ACS NSQIP Surgical Risk Calculator could be used as a decision-support tool for neurosurgical informed consent with respect to predicted mortality but was poorly predictive of other potential adverse events and clinical outcomes.

Restricted access

William A. Friedman, David L. Blatt, Frank J. Bova, John M. Buatti, William M. Mendenhall and Paul S. Kubilis

✓ Two hundred and one patients with arteriovenous malformations (AVMs) treated radiosurgically between May 1988 and February 1995 are analyzed in this study. Twelve patients sustained a posttreatment hemorrhage during this period. Pretreatment factors associated with increased hemorrhage risk were identified in 11 of these patients and included arterial aneurysms, venous aneurysms, venous outflow obstruction, periventricular location, prior embolization, and prior surgical treatment. A detailed statistical analysis, using both Poisson regression and parametric survival regression techniques, was undertaken to determine whether radiosurgery had any effect on the risk of hemorrhage, when compared to the natural history of the disease, in those patients in whom a complete angiographic cure was not achieved. No evidence was found to support a statistically significant departure from the natural hemorrhage rate at any time period after radiosurgical treatment. Significant risk factors for hemorrhage appeared to correlate with increasing AVM volume.

Restricted access

Sasha Vaziri, Joseph M. Abbatematteo, Max S. Fleisher, Alexander B. Dru, Dennis T. Lockney, Paul S. Kubilis and Daniel J. Hoh

OBJECTIVE

The American College of Surgeons (ACS) National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) online surgical risk calculator uses inherent patient characteristics to provide predictive risk scores for adverse postoperative events. The purpose of this study was to determine if predicted perioperative risk scores correlate with actual hospital costs.

METHODS

A single-center retrospective review of 1005 neurosurgical patients treated between September 1, 2011, and December 31, 2014, was performed. Individual patient characteristics were entered into the NSQIP calculator. Predicted risk scores were compared with actual in-hospital costs obtained from a billing database. Correlational statistics were used to determine if patients with higher risk scores were associated with increased in-hospital costs.

RESULTS

The Pearson correlation coefficient (R) was used to assess the correlation between 11 types of predicted complication risk scores and 5 types of encounter costs from 1005 health encounters involving neurosurgical procedures. Risk scores in categories such as any complication, serious complication, pneumonia, cardiac complication, surgical site infection, urinary tract infection, venous thromboembolism, renal failure, return to operating room, death, and discharge to nursing home or rehabilitation facility were obtained. Patients with higher predicted risk scores in all measures except surgical site infection were found to have a statistically significant association with increased actual in-hospital costs (p < 0.0005).

CONCLUSIONS

Previous work has demonstrated that the ACS NSQIP surgical risk calculator can accurately predict mortality after neurosurgery but is poorly predictive of other potential adverse events and clinical outcomes. However, this study demonstrates that predicted high-risk patients identified by the ACS NSQIP surgical risk calculator have a statistically significant moderate correlation to increased actual in-hospital costs. The NSQIP calculator may not accurately predict the occurrence of surgical complications (as demonstrated previously), but future iterations of the ACS universal risk calculator may be effective in predicting actual in-hospital costs, which could be advantageous in the current value-based healthcare environment.

Restricted access

Maryam Rahman, Joseph Abbatematteo, Edward K. De Leo, Paul S. Kubilis, Sasha Vaziri, Frank Bova, Elias Sayour, Duane Mitchell and Alfredo Quinones-Hinojosa

OBJECTIVE

An increased extent of resection (EOR) has been shown to improve overall survival of patients with glioblastoma (GBM) but has the potential for causing a new postoperative neurological deficit. To investigate the impact of surgical neurological morbidity on survival, the authors performed a retrospective analysis of the clinical data from patients with GBM to quantify the impact of a new neurological deficit on the survival benefit achieved with an increased EOR.

METHODS

The data from all GBM patients who underwent resection at the University of Florida from 2010 to 2015 with postoperative imaging within 72 hours of surgery were included in the study. Retrospective analysis was performed on clinical outcomes and tumor volumes determined on postoperative and follow-up imaging examinations.

RESULTS

Overall, 115 patients met the inclusion criteria for the study. Tumor volume at the time of presentation was a median of 59 cm3 (enhanced on T1-weighted MRI scans). The mean EOR (± SD) was 94.2% ± 8.7% (range 59.9%–100%). Almost 30% of patients had a new postoperative neurological deficit, including motor weakness, sensory deficits, language difficulty, visual deficits, confusion, and ataxia. The neurological deficits had resolved in 41% of these patients on subsequent follow-up examinations. The median overall survival was 13.1 months (95% CI 10.9–15.2 months). Using a multipredictor Cox model, the authors observed that increased EOR was associated with improved survival except for patients with smaller tumor volumes (≤ 15 cm3). A residual volume of 2.5 cm3 or less predicted a favorable overall survival. Developing a postoperative neurological deficit significantly affected survival (9.2 months compared with 14.7 months, p = 0.02), even if the neurological deficit had resolved by the first follow-up. However, there was a trend of improved survival among patients with resolution of a neurological deficit by the first follow-up compared with patients with a permanent neurological deficit. Any survival benefit from achieving a 95% EOR was abrogated by the development of a new neurological deficit postoperatively.

CONCLUSIONS

Developing a new neurological deficit after resection of GBM is associated with a decrease in overall survival. A careful balance between EOR and neurological compromise needs to be taken into account to reduce the likelihood of neurological morbidity from surgery.