Adam M. H. Young, Mathew R. Guilfoyle, Helen Fernandes, Matthew R. Garnett, Shruti Agrawal and Peter J. Hutchinson
There is increasing interest in the use of predictive models of outcome in adult head injury. Two international models have been identified to be reliable modalities for predicting outcome: the Corticosteroid Randomisation After Significant Head Injury (CRASH) model, and the International Mission on Prognosis and Analysis of randomized Controlled Trials in TBI (IMPACT) model. However, these models are designed only to identify outcomes in adult populations.
A retrospective analysis was performed on pediatric patients with severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) admitted to the pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) of Addenbrooke's Hospital between January 2009 and December 2013. The individual risk of 14-day mortality was calculated using the CRASH-Basic and -CT models, and the risk of 6-month mortality calculated using the IMPACT-Core and -Extended (including CT findings) models. Model accuracy was determined by standardized mortality ratio (SMtR; observed/expected deaths), discrimination was evaluated as the area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC), and calibration assessed using the Hosmer-Lemeshow χ2 test.
Ninety-four patients with an average age of 7.3 years were admitted to the PICU with a TBI. The mortality rate was 12.7% at 14 days and at 6 months. For the CRASH-Basic model, the SMtR was 1.42 and both calibration (χ2 = 6.1, p = 0.64) and discrimination (AUROC = 0.92) were good. For the IMPACT-Core model, the SMtR was 1.03 and the model was also well calibrated (χ2 = 8.99, p = 0.34) and had good discrimination (AUROC = 0.85). Poor outcome was observed in 17% of the cohort and identified with the CRASH-Basic and IMPACT-Core models to varying degrees: standardized morbidity ratio = 0.89 vs 0.67, respectively; calibration = 6.5 (χ2) and 0.59 (p value) versus 8.52 (χ2) and 0.38 (p value), respectively; and discrimination (AUROC) = 0.92 versus 0.83, respectively.
Adult head injury models may be applied with sufficient accuracy to identify predictors of morbidity and mortality in pediatric TBI.
Paul M. Brennan, Angelos G. Kolias, Alexis J. Joannides, Jonathan Shapey, Hani J. Marcus, Barbara A. Gregson, Patrick J. Grover, Peter J. Hutchinson and Ian C. Coulter
Symptomatic chronic subdural hematoma (CSDH) will become an increasingly common presentation in neurosurgical practice as the population ages, but quality evidence is still lacking to guide the optimal management for these patients. The British Neurosurgical Trainee Research Collaborative (BNTRC) was established by neurosurgical trainees in 2012 to improve research by combining the efforts of trainees in each of the United Kingdom (UK) and Ireland's neurosurgical units (NSUs). The authors present the first study by the BNTRC that describes current management and outcomes for patients with CSDH throughout the UK and Ireland. This provides a resource both for current clinical practice and future clinical research on CSDH.
Data on management and outcomes for patients with CSDH referred to UK and Ireland NSUs were collected prospectively over an 8-month period and audited against criteria predefined from the literature: NSU mortality < 5%, NSU morbidity < 10%, symptomatic recurrence within 60 days requiring repeat surgery < 20%, and unfavorable functional status (modified Rankin Scale score of 4–6) at NSU discharge < 30%.
Data from 1205 patients in 26 NSUs were collected. Bur-hole craniostomy was the most common procedure (89%), and symptomatic recurrence requiring repeat surgery within 60 days was observed in 9% of patients. Criteria on mortality (2%), rate of recurrence (9%), and unfavorable functional outcome (22%) were met, but morbidity was greater than expected (14%). Multivariate analysis demonstrated that failure to insert a drain intraoperatively independently predicted recurrence and unfavorable functional outcome (p = 0.011 and p = 0.048, respectively). Increasing patient age (p < 0.00001), postoperative bed rest (p = 0.019), and use of a single bur hole (p = 0.020) independently predicted unfavorable functional outcomes, but prescription of high-flow oxygen or preoperative use of antiplatelet medications did not.
This is the largest prospective CSDH study and helps establish national standards. It has confirmed in a real-world setting the effectiveness of placing a subdural drain. This study identified a number of modifiable prognostic factors but questions the necessity of some common aspects of CSDH management, such as enforced postoperative bed rest. Future studies should seek to establish how practitioners can optimize perioperative care of patients with CSDH to reduce morbidity as well as minimize CSDH recurrence. The BNTRC is unique worldwide, conducting multicenter trainee-led research and audits. This study demonstrates that collaborative research networks are powerful tools to interrogate clinical research questions.
Adriaan R. E. Potgieser, J. Marc C. van Dijk and Jan D. M. Metzemaekers