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Justin K. Scheer, Taemin Oh, Justin S. Smith, Christopher I. Shaffrey, Alan H. Daniels, Daniel M. Sciubba, D. Kojo Hamilton, Themistocles S. Protopsaltis, Peter G. Passias, Robert A. Hart, Douglas C. Burton, Shay Bess, Renaud Lafage, Virginie Lafage, Frank Schwab, Eric O. Klineberg, Christopher P. Ames and the International Spine Study Group

OBJECTIVE

Pseudarthrosis can occur following adult spinal deformity (ASD) surgery and can lead to instrumentation failure, recurrent pain, and ultimately revision surgery. In addition, it is one of the most expensive complications of ASD surgery. Risk factors contributing to pseudarthrosis in ASD have been described; however, a preoperative model predicting the development of pseudarthrosis does not exist. The goal of this study was to create a preoperative predictive model for pseudarthrosis based on demographic, radiographic, and surgical factors.

METHODS

A retrospective review of a prospectively maintained, multicenter ASD database was conducted. Study inclusion criteria consisted of adult patients (age ≥ 18 years) with spinal deformity and surgery for the ASD. From among 82 variables assessed, 21 were used for model building after applying collinearity testing, redundancy, and univariable predictor importance ≥ 0.90. Variables included demographic data along with comorbidities, modifiable surgical variables, baseline coronal and sagittal radiographic parameters, and baseline scores for health-related quality of life measures. Patients groups were determined according to their Lenke radiographic fusion type at the 2-year follow-up: bilateral or unilateral fusion (union) or pseudarthrosis (nonunion). A decision tree was constructed, and internal validation was accomplished via bootstrapped training and testing data sets. Accuracy and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) were calculated to evaluate the model.

RESULTS

A total of 336 patients were included in the study (nonunion: 105, union: 231). The model was 91.3% accurate with an AUC of 0.94. From 82 initial variables, the top 21 covered a wide range of areas including preoperative alignment, comorbidities, patient demographics, and surgical use of graft material.

CONCLUSIONS

A model for predicting the development of pseudarthrosis at the 2-year follow-up was successfully created. This model is the first of its kind for complex predictive analytics in the development of pseudarthrosis for patients with ASD undergoing surgical correction and can aid in clinical decision-making for potential preventative strategies.

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Emily K. Miller, Brian J. Neuman, Amit Jain, Alan H. Daniels, Tamir Ailon, Daniel M. Sciubba, Khaled M. Kebaish, Virginie Lafage, Justin K. Scheer, Justin S. Smith, Shay Bess, Christopher I. Shaffrey, Christopher P. Ames and the International Spine Study Group

OBJECTIVE

The goal of this study was to analyze the value of an adult spinal deformity frailty index (ASD-FI) in preoperative risk stratification. Preoperative risk assessment is imperative before procedures known to have high complication rates, such as ASD surgery. Frailty has been associated with risk of complications in trauma surgery, and preoperative frailty assessments could improve the accuracy of risk stratification by providing a comprehensive analysis of patient factors that contribute to an increased risk of complications.

METHODS

Using 40 variables, the authors calculated frailty scores with a validated method for 417 patients (enrolled between 2010 and 2014) with a minimum 2-year follow-up in an ASD database. On the basis of these scores, the authors categorized patients as not frail (NF) (< 0.3 points), frail (0.3–0.5 points), or severely frail (SF) (> 0.5 points). The correlation between frailty category and incidence of complications was analyzed.

RESULTS

The overall mean ASD-FI score was 0.33 (range 0.0–0.8). Compared with NF patients (n = 183), frail patients (n = 158) and SF patients (n = 109) had longer mean hospital stays (1.2 and 1.6 times longer, respectively; p < 0.001). The adjusted odds of experiencing a major intraoperative or postoperative complication were higher for frail patients (OR 2.8) and SF patients ( 4.1) compared with NF patients (p < 0.01). For frail and SF patients, respectively, the adjusted odds of developing proximal junctional kyphosis (OR 2.8 and 3.1) were higher than those for NF patients. The SF patients had higher odds of developing pseudarthrosis (OR 13.0), deep wound infection (OR 8.0), and wound dehiscence (OR 13.4) than NF patients (p < 0.05), and they had 2.1 times greater odds of reoperation (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Greater patient frailty, as measured by the ASD-FI, was associated with worse outcome in many common quality and value metrics, including greater risk of major complications, proximal junctional kyphosis, pseudarthrosis, deep wound infection, wound dehiscence, reoperation, and longer hospital stay.

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Amit Jain, Hamid Hassanzadeh, Varun Puvanesarajah, Eric O. Klineberg, Daniel M. Sciubba, Michael P. Kelly, D. Kojo Hamilton, Virginie Lafage, Aaron J. Buckland, Peter G. Passias, Themistocles S. Protopsaltis, Renaud Lafage, Justin S. Smith, Christopher I. Shaffrey, Khaled M. Kebaish and the International Spine Study Group

OBJECTIVE

Using 2 complication-reporting methods, the authors investigated the incidence of major medical complications and mortality in elderly patients after surgery for adult spinal deformity (ASD) during a 2-year follow-up period.

METHODS

The authors queried a multicenter, prospective, surgeon-maintained database (SMD) to identify patients 65 years or older who underwent surgical correction of ASD from 2008 through 2014 and had a minimum 2 years of follow-up (n = 153). They also queried a Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services claims database (MCD) for patients 65 years or older who underwent fusion of 8 or more vertebral levels from 2005 through 2012 (n = 3366). They calculated cumulative rates of the following complications during the first 6 weeks after surgery: cerebrovascular accident, congestive heart failure, deep venous thrombosis, myocardial infarction, pneumonia, and pulmonary embolism. Significance was set at p < 0.05.

RESULTS

During the perioperative period, rates of major medical complications were 5.9% for pneumonia, 4.1% for deep venous thrombosis, 3.2% for pulmonary embolism, 2.1% for cerebrovascular accident, 1.8% for myocardial infarction, and 1.0% for congestive heart failure. Mortality rates were 0.9% at 6 weeks and 1.8% at 2 years. When comparing the SMD with the MCD, there were no significant differences in the perioperative rates of major medical complications except pneumonia. Furthermore, there were no significant intergroup differences in the mortality rates at 6 weeks or 2 years. The SMD provided greater detail with respect to deformity characteristics and surgical variables than the MCD.

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence of most major medical complications in the elderly after surgery for ASD was similar between the SMD and the MCD and ranged from 1% for congestive heart failure to 5.9% for pneumonia. These complications data can be valuable for preoperative patient counseling and informed consent.

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Justin K. Scheer, Justin S. Smith, Frank Schwab, Virginie Lafage, Christopher I. Shaffrey, Shay Bess, Alan H. Daniels, Robert A. Hart, Themistocles S. Protopsaltis, Gregory M. Mundis Jr., Daniel M. Sciubba, Tamir Ailon, Douglas C. Burton, Eric Klineberg, Christopher P. Ames and The International Spine Study Group

OBJECTIVE

The operative management of patients with adult spinal deformity (ASD) has a high complication rate and it remains unknown whether baseline patient characteristics and surgical variables can predict early complications (intraoperative and perioperative [within 6 weeks]). The development of an accurate preoperative predictive model can aid in patient counseling, shared decision making, and improved surgical planning. The purpose of this study was to develop a model based on baseline demographic, radiographic, and surgical factors that can predict if patients will sustain an intraoperative or perioperative major complication.

METHODS

This study was a retrospective analysis of a prospective, multicenter ASD database. The inclusion criteria were age ≥ 18 years and the presence of ASD. In total, 45 variables were used in the initial training of the model including demographic data, comorbidities, modifiable surgical variables, baseline health-related quality of life, and coronal and sagittal radiographic parameters. Patients were grouped as either having at least 1 major intraoperative or perioperative complication (COMP group) or not (NOCOMP group). An ensemble of decision trees was constructed utilizing the C5.0 algorithm with 5 different bootstrapped models. Internal validation was accomplished via a 70/30 data split for training and testing each model, respectively. Overall accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve, and predictor importance were calculated.

RESULTS

Five hundred fifty-seven patients were included: 409 (73.4%) in the NOCOMP group, and 148 (26.6%) in the COMP group. The overall model accuracy was 87.6% correct with an AUROC curve of 0.89 indicating a very good model fit. Twenty variables were determined to be the top predictors (importance ≥ 0.90 as determined by the model) and included (in decreasing importance): age, leg pain, Oswestry Disability Index, number of decompression levels, number of interbody fusion levels, Physical Component Summary of the SF-36, Scoliosis Research Society (SRS)–Schwab coronal curve type, Charlson Comorbidity Index, SRS activity, T-1 pelvic angle, American Society of Anesthesiologists grade, presence of osteoporosis, pelvic tilt, sagittal vertical axis, primary versus revision surgery, SRS pain, SRS total, use of bone morphogenetic protein, use of iliac crest graft, and pelvic incidence–lumbar lordosis mismatch.

CONCLUSIONS

A successful model (87% accuracy, 0.89 AUROC curve) was built predicting major intraoperative or perioperative complications following ASD surgery. This model can provide the foundation toward improved education and point-of-care decision making for patients undergoing ASD surgery.

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Michael P. Kelly, Lukas P. Zebala, Han Jo Kim, Daniel M. Sciubba, Justin S. Smith, Christopher I. Shaffrey, Shay Bess, Eric Klineberg, Gregory Mundis Jr., Douglas Burton, Robert Hart, Alex Soroceanu, Frank Schwab, Virginie Lafage and International Spine Study Group

OBJECT

The goal of this study was to examine the effectiveness of preoperative autologous blood donation (PABD) in adult spinal deformity (ASD) surgery.

METHODS

Patients undergoing single-stay ASD reconstructions were identified in a multicenter database. Patients were divided into groups according to PABD (either PABD or NoPABD). Propensity weighting was used to create matched cohorts of PABD and NoPABD patients. Allogeneic (ALLO) exposure, autologous (AUTO) wastage (unused AUTO), and complication rates were compared between groups.

RESULTS

Four hundred twenty-eight patients were identified as meeting eligibility criteria. Sixty patients were treated with PABD, of whom 50 were matched to 50 patients who were not treated with PABD (NoPABD). Nearly one-third of patients in the PABD group (18/60, 30%) did not receive any autologous transfusion and donated blood was wasted. In 6 of these cases (6/60, 10%), patients received ALLO blood transfusions without AUTO. In 9 cases (9/60, 15%), patients received ALLO and AUTO blood transfusions. Overall rates of transfusion of any type were similar between groups (PABD 70% [42/60], NoPABD 75% [275/368], p = 0.438). Major and minor in-hospital complications were similar between groups (Major PABD 10% [6/60], NoPABD 12% [43/368], p = 0.537; Minor PABD 30% [18/60], NoPABD 24% [87/368], p = 0.499). When controlling for potential confounders, PABD patients were more likely to receive some transfusion (OR 15.1, 95% CI 2.1-106.7). No relationship between PABD and ALLO blood exposure was observed, however, refuting the concept that PABD is protective against ALLO blood exposure. In the matched cohorts, PABD patients were more likely to sustain a major perioperative cardiac complication (PABD 8/50 [16%], NoPABD 1/50 [2%], p = 0.046). No differences in rates of infection or wound-healing complications were observed between cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

Preoperative autologous blood donation was associated with a higher probability of perioperative transfusions of any type in patients with ASD. No protective effect of PABD against ALLO blood exposure was observed, and no risk of perioperative infectious complications was observed in patients exposed to ALLO blood only. The benefit of PABD in patients with ASD remains undefined.

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Zoher Ghogawala, Christopher I. Shaffrey, Anthony L. Asher, Robert F. Heary, Tanya Logvinenko, Neil R. Malhotra, Stephen J. Dante, R. John Hurlbert, Andrea F. Douglas, Subu N. Magge, Praveen V. Mummaneni, Joseph S. Cheng, Justin S. Smith, Michael G. Kaiser, Khalid M. Abbed, Daniel M. Sciubba and Daniel K. Resnick

Object

There is significant practice variation and considerable uncertainty among payers and other major stakeholders as to whether many surgical treatments are effective in actual US spine practice. The aim of this study was to establish a multicenter cooperative research group and demonstrate the feasibility of developing a registry to assess the efficacy of common lumbar spinal procedures using prospectively collected patient-reported outcome measures.

Methods

An observational prospective cohort study was conducted at 13 US academic and community sites. Unselected patients undergoing lumbar discectomy or single-level fusion for spondylolisthesis were included. Patients completed the 36-item Short-Form Survey Instrument (SF-36), Oswestry Disability Index (ODI), and visual analog scale (VAS) questionnaires preoperatively and at 1, 3, 6, and 12 months postoperatively. Power analysis estimated a sample size of 160 patients: 125 patients with lumbar disc herniation, and 35 with lumbar spondylolisthesis. All patient data were entered into a secure Internet-based data management platform.

Results

Of 249 patients screened, there were 198 enrolled over 1 year. The median age of the patients was 45.0 years (49% female) for lumbar discectomy (n = 148), and 58.0 years (58% female) for lumbar spondylolisthesis (n = 50). At 30 days, 12 complications (6.1% of study population) were identified. Ten patients (6.8%) with disc herniation and 1 (2%) with spondylolisthesis required reoperation. The overall follow-up rate for the collection of patient-reported outcome data over 1 year was 88.3%. At 30 days, both lumbar discectomy and single-level fusion procedures were associated with significant improvements in ODI, VAS, and SF-36 scores (p ≤ 0.0002), which persisted over the 1-year follow-up period (p < 0.0001). By the 1-year follow-up evaluation, more than 80% of patients in each cohort who were working preoperatively had returned to work.

Conclusions

It is feasible to build a national spine registry for the collection of high-quality prospective data to demonstrate the effectiveness of spinal procedures in actual practice. Clinical trial registration no.: 01220921 (ClinicalTrials.gov).