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  • By Author: Lunsford, L. Dade x
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Douglas Kondziolka, Phillip V. Parry, L. Dade Lunsford, Hideyuki Kano, John C. Flickinger, Susan Rakfal, Yoshio Arai, Jay S. Loeffler, Stephen Rush, Jonathan P. S. Knisely, Jason Sheehan, William Friedman, Ahmad A. Tarhini, Lanie Francis, Frank Lieberman, Manmeet S. Ahluwalia, Mark E. Linskey, Michael McDermott, Paul Sperduto and Roger Stupp


Estimating survival time in cancer patients is crucial for clinicians, patients, families, and payers. To provide appropriate and cost-effective care, various data sources are used to provide rational, reliable, and reproducible estimates. The accuracy of such estimates is unknown.


The authors prospectively estimated survival in 150 consecutive cancer patients (median age 62 years) with brain metastases undergoing radiosurgery. They recorded cancer type, number of brain metastases, neurological presentation, extracranial disease status, Karnofsky Performance Scale score, Recursive Partitioning Analysis class, prior whole-brain radiotherapy, and synchronous or metachronous presentation. Finally, the authors asked 18 medical, radiation, or surgical oncologists to predict survival from the time of treatment.


The actual median patient survival was 10.3 months (95% CI 6.4–14). The median physician-predicted survival was 9.7 months (neurosurgeons = 11.8 months, radiation oncologists = 11.0 months, and medical oncologist = 7.2 months). For patients who died before 10 months, both neurosurgeons and radiation oncologists generally predicted survivals that were more optimistic and medical oncologists that were less so, although no group could accurately predict survivors alive at 14 months. All physicians had individual patient survival predictions that were incorrect by as much as 12–18 months, and 14 of 18 physicians had individual predictions that were in error by more than 18 months. Of the 2700 predictions, 1226 (45%) were off by more than 6 months and 488 (18%) were off by more than 12 months.


Although crucial, predicting the survival of cancer patients is difficult. In this study all physicians were unable to accurately predict longer-term survivors. Despite valuable clinical data and predictive scoring techniques, brain and systemic management often led to patient survivals well beyond estimated survivals.

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Gene H. Barnett, Mark E. Linskey, John R. Adler, Jeffrey W. Cozzens, William A. Friedman, M. Peter Heilbrun, L. Dade Lunsford, Michael Schulder, Andrew E. Sloan and The American Association of Neurological Surgeons/Congress of Neurological Surgeons Washington Committee Stereotactic Radiosurgery Task Force

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Mark E. Linskey, A. Julio Martinez, Douglas Kondziolka, John C. Flickinger, Ann H. Maitz, Theresa Whiteside and L. Dade Lunsford

✓ An experimental model with xenograft transplantation into the subrenal capsule of athymic (nude) mice was used to evaluate the early response of human acoustic schwannomas to stereotactic radiosurgery. After xenograft placement, 45 mice underwent radiosurgery with single doses of 10, 20, or 40 Gy using a 201-source 60Co gamma unit (4-mm collimator, single isocenter, 80% isodose line). The 45 radiosurgery-treated xenografts were compared with 15 untreated xenografts and 15 xenografts in mice that underwent “sham radiosurgery.” All five study groups were matched for the following pretreatment variables: patient of origin, animal weight, average xenograft diameter, and percentage of xenograft surface vascularity. Immediately prior to sacrifice of the mice all xenografts were evaluated in situ to determine the average tumor diameter, tumor volume, and percentage of surface vascularity. Mice were sacrificed 2 weeks, 1 month, or 3 months after radiosurgery. Blinded histological review was performed by an independent neuropathologist.

Tumor volume was reduced 33.6% after 2 weeks (p = 0.023) and 45% after 3 months (p = 0.018) in the 40-Gy radiosurgery group. Tumor volume was reduced by 46.2% after 1 month (p = 0.0002) and 35.2% after 3 months (p = 0.032) in the 20-Gy radiosurgery group. An average volume reduction of 16.4% was observed after 3 months (p = 0.17) in the 10-Gy radiosurgery group. At 3 months after surgery, tumor surface vascularity was reduced by an average of 19.7% (p = 0.043) in the 40-Gy radiosurgery group and 5.8% (p = 0.12) in the 20-Gy radiosurgery group and was unchanged in the 10-Gy radiosurgery group and both control groups. Histological examination demonstrated a higher incidence of hemosiderin deposits (p = 0.026) and vascular mural hyalinization (p = 0.032) in radiosurgery xenografts versus control.

The subrenal capsule xenograft in nude mice was an excellent model for studying the in vivo radiobiology of acoustic schwannomas after radiosurgery. Both cellular and vascular effects could be assessed serially in situ and the model was stable even 4 months after transplantation. Additional studies investigating radiobiology over periods better approximating the time course of clinical neuroimaging changes (6 to 12 months) are warranted.